VIII.7. How to choose an issuer? Monitoring of the issuer’s actions, tracking of suspicious transactions of the issuer.

When choosing an issuer, you should follow a downward trend (the degree of confidence decreases):

– FLB;

– BBR;

– regional bonds;

– municipal bonds;

– corporate bonds;

– exchange-traded bonds;

– commercial bonds.

If you are planning to purchase bonds, then you should carefully study all available information about this issuer, its capitalization, issued series of bonds, the total value of active bonds (not redeemed), the serviceability of coupon payments, data on significant transactions, data on technical defaults, customer reviews, the dynamics of bond price changes.

Having bought bonds, it is necessary to monitor changes in all the above parameters at least once a week. Using the example of the ORGrupp2P4 bond, we will show what can happen one day if you do not follow the bonds (see Fig. 212).

Fig.212. The graph of the change in the price of the bond ORGrupp2P4.

With this exchange-traded bond, according to the primary signs, everything corresponded to the norm:

– payment of coupons monthly;

– coupon rate of 16% per annum;

– a large well-known company “Shoes of Russia”.

– capitalization significantly exceeds the value of all issued bonds.

However, around 19.01.22, the issuer was unable to repay bonds of another series for 0.5 billion rubles, which undoubtedly affected the sharp desire of buyers to get rid of these bonds. In Fig.212 we see that the OR bonds lost in price, falling from 1054 rubles per bond to 290 rubles by 25.01.22. Further, however, the low price attracted new buyers, coupons continued to be paid. Then the bond fell to 121 rubles. The glass is shown in Fig.213.

We see that there are several cautious buyers and there are no sellers at all.

Fig.213. Glass bonds ORGrup2P4 on 06/24/12.

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